Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council deputy minister Shen Yu-chung said Friday that Chinese President 
Xi Jinping may be moving toward lifelong rule and that more officials could fall at the Communist Party's Fifth Plenum. He was speaking at the opening of a National Chengchi University seminar on China's development since the party's 20th Congress, where he also said Xi was tightening ideological control and stability maintenance. At the same event, Academia Sinica political scientist Wu Yu-shan said no successor was in sight and that Xi would certainly be re-elected at the 21st Congress, Taiwan's Central News Agency (CNA) reported.
What did Shen say about the leadership? Shen, in remarks CNA carried, said that since taking power in 2012 Xi has broken with collective leadership and term limits, using anti-corruption drives to control the bureaucracy and military. After successive purges, only Xi and Zhang Shengmin remain on the Central Military Commission, and three of the 24 Politburo members, including He Weidong and Zhang Youxia, have fallen. "With the Fifth Plenum about to convene, we believe the number who fall may be greater," Shen said.
What else did he cite? He said China's defence budget rose 7% this year, its 31st straight annual increase, and that grey-zone incursions in nearby seas and skies have not eased despite purges of senior generals. Taiwan's coast guard detected a record 244 Chinese vessels in surrounding waters in July, CNA reported. On the economy, Shen cited first-half growth of 4.7%, July urban youth unemployment of 17.9% and more than 200 million people in unstable "flexible employment."
Why does Wu see no successor? Age-limit and term conventions have been broken under Xi, and no current Politburo Standing Committee member qualifies as a successor, Wu said. He outlined three scenarios for the 21st Congress, among them a "Brezhnev model" in which Xi stays and the Standing Committee, perhaps even the Politburo, also breaks age limits.
Which outcome does Wu prefer? If Xi stays while the others retire by age, legitimacy would erode, purges would grow more frequent and the leadership would need to go on the attack abroad to persuade the public, he said. The Brezhnev model, by contrast, is a super-stable structure that would not adopt a hardline posture abroad to satisfy domestic power struggles. "I rather hope the CCP goes the Brezhnev way," Wu said, adding that with full control at home, Xi could either tighten or ease on Taiwan.
Figures referenced: Xi Jinping. — JudgeMarket.
