Iran announced Saturday it had closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israel's military campaign in Lebanon, warning that the Switzerland talks were unlikely to advance unless the fighting stopped. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned ships not to approach the strategic waterway — which before the war carried a fifth of global oil and liquid gas supplies — citing what it called Israeli crimes in Lebanon and a US violation of ceasefire commitments, per France 24. President 
Donald Trump countered by threatening US-imposed tolls on Hormuz shipping if a final agreement is not reached within 60 days.
What's the IRGC verbatim? The IRGC's joint military command said the strait had been closed due to Israel's continued attacks in Lebanon, per Deutsche Welle. The shipping warning is the kinetic-economic mechanism — even without intercepting vessels, the warning itself raises insurance and transit-risk premia for vessels considering the waterway.
How is Trump countering? Trump vowed Iran will not charge Strait of Hormuz tolls but said the US might, per Al Jazeera. The US-Iran deal does not rule out future tolls in the strait after an initial 60-day period — meaning the threat sits inside the permissive language rather than violating it outright.
Where does Israeli Lebanon escalation fit? Iran cited Israeli "crimes" in Lebanon and US violation of ceasefire commitments as the trigger, per the Guardian. The framing puts the US in the position of failing on the deal's "all fronts" clause from the Iranian-side perspective — making the Hormuz closure a contractual-grievance enforcement action rather than a unilateral re-escalation.
What's the timing pressure? The closure announcement landed ahead of Sunday's Switzerland talks. The pre-talks closure is a negotiating-leverage move — Tehran wants the talks to address the Lebanon clause before progressing on nuclear and sanctions detail.
Is the closure operational? It is unclear if the threat has been carried out or if the move will jeopardise the Sunday talks, per the Guardian. The ambiguity is itself part of the leverage: shippers must price the risk without knowing whether Iranian forces will physically interdict.
What's the next data point? Sunday's talks become the test of whether the Lebanon-front grievance can be addressed inside the existing deal architecture or whether the Hormuz closure becomes a sustained kinetic-economic pressure tactic.
Figures referenced: Donald Trump. — JudgeMarket.
