Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals won all three Canadian special elections held on Monday, taking a Quebec seat from the opposition Conservatives as Carney confronts President 
Donald Trump in an escalating trade war. Carney said in a statement that "at this consequential time for Canada, voters have placed their trust in our government's plan," PBS NewsHour reported. The sweep brings the Liberals to 173 seats in the 343-seat House of Commons.
Who won? Liberal Daniel Gobeil, a dairy farmer, took Chicoutimi-Le Fjord with more than half of the vote, the BBC reported. The Bloc Québécois finished second and the Conservatives third, in what had been a narrow three-way race last time round. The vacancy arose when its Conservative MP, Richard Martel, stepped down after Carney appointed him to the Senate. Tanveer Shahnawaz won Beaches-East York in Ontario and Braeden Caley won North Vancouver-Capilano in British Columbia, both seats the Liberals already held.
How do analysts explain the result? Abacus Data founder David Coletto credited a four-point rise in the government's approval to Trump's lack of popularity with Canadians and to the country rallying around Carney's decision to walk away from trade talks, the BBC reported. Nelson Wiseman, a University of Toronto political scientist quoted by PBS NewsHour, said Carney is more popular in Quebec than in any other region and that Trump's annexation threats carry particular weight there. "Quebecers have the most to lose in an apocalyptic scenario where the U.S. absorbs Canada, and the status of the French language disappears," he said. McGill University's Daniel Béland said the Quebec win likely reflected, in part, the popularity of Carney's Aug. 21 decision "to pull the plug on trade negotiations with the White House." The Conservative share in the riding fell from 34% last year to about 13%, a collapse Béland said was also bad news for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre: "These numbers do look bad."
How has the trade dispute escalated? Trump imposed 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion in Canadian goods after talks collapsed on Aug. 21, and Canada responded with plans for tariffs on U.S. products, PBS NewsHour reported. Trump has since signed an executive order renaming Lake Ontario "Lake America," and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that Canada had limited leverage because the U.S. economy is roughly 13 times larger. Carney, for his part, told Trump to "stop doing memes, stop throwing shade, and stop trying to be tough," Sky News reported.
Figures referenced: Donald Trump. — JudgeMarket.
