한궈위

Han Kuo-yu (born 1957) is a Taiwanese Kuomintang politician who has served as Speaker of the Legislative Yuan since February 2024. He came to national prominence in November 2018 when he won the Kaohsiung mayoral election as a KMT outsider in the DPP's traditional southern stronghold — an upset that signaled major shifts in Taiwanese politics. He then secured the 2020 KMT presidential nomination but lost decisively to incumbent Tsai Ing-wen. He was recalled as Kaohsiung mayor in June 2020, the first such recall in Taiwanese history. After several years out of the spotlight, he returned via the 2024 legislative election as a KMT party-list candidate, becoming Speaker as the KMT became the largest legislative party.

Han's legacy includes the populist disruption of Taiwan's political establishment, the brief KMT revival of 2018–2019, and the demonstration that traditional DPP southern strongholds were no longer guaranteed. His blunt communication style, "Han wave" rallies that drew massive crowds, and direct appeal to working-class and small-business constituencies reshaped Taiwanese campaign politics. As current Speaker, he has presided over an unprecedented period of legislative-executive confrontation with the Lai Ching-te administration, with KMT-TPP majority pushing controversial legislative reforms that the DPP and Constitutional Court have challenged. His ultimate legacy will depend on how the divided government period resolves and whether KMT regains executive power.

Han is controversial across multiple dimensions. His populist style — including provocative statements and a folksy "yellow scarf" demeanor — has divided Taiwanese opinion sharply along partisan and generational lines. His cross-strait positioning is more accommodating toward Beijing than the DPP or KMT moderates, with his 2019 visit to Hong Kong and Macau (including meeting with the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office) drawing criticism. The 2020 recall came after widespread perception that he had abandoned Kaohsiung to run for president shortly after taking office. As Speaker, the parliamentary reforms he has pushed through have drawn protests and legal challenges. Supporters view him as a refreshing voice for ordinary Taiwanese; critics view him as a destabilizing populist.

Han was born in 1957 in Banqiao, Taipei. His father served in the ROC military. He studied at Soochow University Law School and later earned a master's degree from the Graduate Institute of East Asian Studies at National Chengchi University. He served three terms in the Legislative Yuan from 1993 to 2002 representing Taipei County. He then withdrew from politics for over a decade, serving as general manager of Taipei Agricultural Products Marketing Corporation from 2013 to 2017. This career gap and his low profile made his 2018 Kaohsiung mayoral victory unexpected. He campaigned with a populist anti-elite message focused on economic concerns of southern Taiwan working-class voters.

The 2018 Kaohsiung election was widely considered the most surprising political upset in modern Taiwanese history. The DPP had governed Kaohsiung continuously since 1998 and the city was viewed as a near-impregnable green stronghold. Han ran a populist economic-focused campaign, with the slogan "Kaohsiung's goods sell out, Kaohsiung people get rich," promising direct trade promotion and economic revitalization. His blunt style and rallies drew unexpectedly massive crowds, generating the "Han wave" phenomenon. He defeated DPP candidate Chen Chi-mai by approximately 9 points, triggering nationwide reassessment of Taiwanese electoral politics. The KMT also won an unprecedented sweep of mayoral elections that night, indicating a broader anti-DPP swing.

After his Kaohsiung win, Han pursued the KMT presidential nomination for 2020 against initial opposition from KMT establishment figures who viewed him as too populist. He won the nomination in July 2019 but ran an underwhelming general election campaign. The 2019 Hong Kong protests, which generated widespread Taiwanese sympathy and anti-Beijing sentiment, severely damaged his cross-strait positioning. Tsai Ing-wen won the January 2020 election with 57 percent to Han's 39 percent — a decisive defeat that included losing his Kaohsiung mayoral stronghold base. The DPP also won the legislative election. Han was recalled as Kaohsiung mayor in June 2020 with 97 percent of voters supporting recall.

Within Taiwan, Han polarizes along clear lines — strong support among older KMT voters, working-class southern constituents who maintained loyalty after his recall, and KMT establishment supporters; strong opposition from DPP supporters, urban professionals, younger voters, and many independents. In mainland China, his more accommodating cross-strait positioning has been viewed favorably, with official media generally treating him more positively than DPP figures. In Hong Kong, his 2019 visit and apparent comfort with Hong Kong officials damaged perceptions among democracy supporters. Internationally, his profile is lower than presidential figures, primarily known through his 2020 campaign or current Speaker role.

Han's relationships within the KMT have been complex — he won the nomination against establishment opposition and continues to represent a populist wing distinct from technocratic factions. He has had visible tensions with various KMT figures including Cheng Li-wun, who succeeded as KMT chair in 2025. He is sharply opposed to DPP leaders Tsai Ing-wen and Lai Ching-te, and has used his Speaker position to obstruct DPP legislative priorities. His relationship with Ko Wen-je and the TPP has been transactional — the KMT-TPP majority is necessary to push his preferred reforms but the parties remain rivals. He represents a different KMT lineage than Chiang Kai-shek or Chiang Ching-kuo — populist outsider rather than authoritarian or technocratic establishment.

Since becoming Speaker in February 2024, Han has presided over one of the most confrontational periods between Taiwan's executive and legislative branches in democratic history. The KMT-TPP majority has pushed parliamentary reforms expanding legislative investigative powers, contempt-of-parliament penalties, and other measures the DPP characterized as unconstitutional power grabs. The Constitutional Court has ruled against several provisions. Budget battles have escalated, with the legislature cutting funding for defense, executive offices, and other DPP priorities. Han's gavel decisions and procedural rulings have drawn DPP protests and physical confrontations on the legislative floor — restoring an era of contentious Taiwan parliamentary politics not seen in years.

Bulls argue Han has done something rare in Taiwan politics — built durable populist appeal that survives electoral defeats and recall. They credit him with reviving the KMT's competitive position, giving voice to constituencies dismissed by the political establishment, and providing meaningful legislative opposition to DPP overreach as Speaker. They view his economic populism as a needed corrective to elite-focused politics. They argue his cross-strait pragmatism — while controversial — represents legitimate diversity of strategic positions Taiwan needs to consider. They see his Speaker tenure as demonstrating effective use of constitutional authority to check executive power.

Bears argue Han is a destabilizing populist who has weakened Taiwan's governance, undermined critical defense funding, and pursued unconstitutional parliamentary power expansion. They cite the 2020 recall as definitive voter judgment on his Kaohsiung performance, his cross-strait positioning as inadequately responsive to PRC threats, and his Speaker leadership as contributing to government dysfunction at a moment of maximum external pressure. Critics view his rallies and rhetoric as undermining political norms. They argue his appeal is narrow and shrinking, sustained by base voters rather than broadening. From a pro-democracy international perspective, his style raises concerns familiar from populist movements elsewhere.

Han Kuo-yu is among the most polarized Taiwan political assets on JudgeMarket. His price reflects sharp disagreement: loyal supporters bid him up while DPP-leaning and international democratic constituencies hit toward 0. His current Speaker role and active confrontation with Lai Ching-te's administration create continuous price action. Cross-strait tension dynamics affect his price — escalations from Beijing often pressure him among defense-focused constituents while reinforcing him among his base. His order book typically shows wide spreads and active trading reflecting the ongoing dispute.

Han's price moves on legislative battles (parliamentary reform votes, budget fights, executive-legislative confrontations), Constitutional Court rulings on legislative powers, cross-strait events that highlight his positioning, KMT internal developments including Cheng Li-wun's leadership decisions, local election outcomes that reflect on KMT electoral health, his own public statements and any media appearances, and any signs of intra-KMT challenge to his Speaker authority. Major confrontations on the Legislative Yuan floor generate immediate price action.

Compared to Tsai Ing-wen, Han represents nearly opposite political style — populist rather than technocratic, blunt rather than restrained, polarizing rather than disciplined. Compared to Lai Ching-te, Han is the principal partisan opposition figure. Compared to Ko Wen-je, both have been populist outsiders but with different bases — Han among older KMT and southern working-class voters, Ko among younger urban voters. Compared to traditional KMT figures Chiang Kai-shek and Chiang Ching-kuo, Han represents a populist transformation of the party. Compared to Cheng Li-wun who now chairs KMT, Han retains parallel power as Speaker creating complex intra-party dynamics.

Han's long-term reputation depends on whether his populist wing wins or loses the battle for KMT identity, whether his Speaker tenure is remembered as effective opposition or destructive obstruction, and how the broader divided government period resolves. If KMT eventually regains executive power partly through his groundwork, his reputation strengthens significantly. If the populist KMT proves a dead-end and the party further restructures, his standing diminishes. He is too active a politician for his reputation to be considered settled in either direction.

Han Kuo-yu is a high-volatility position whose price tracks the partisan polarization of contemporary Taiwan. The bull case rests on KMT revival, sustained populist appeal, and effective Speaker leadership. The bear case rests on continued KMT structural challenges, government dysfunction backlash, and the possibility of further intra-party marginalization. Pair trades against Lai Ching-te directly express partisan directional views. Pair trades against Cheng Li-wun can express views on KMT internal dynamics. Position sizing should reflect the high partisan polarization and the active nature of his political role. Traders should monitor legislative battles and cross-strait developments as primary catalysts.