정리원

Cheng's legacy is still developing. As KMT chairperson elected in 2025, her central task is rebuilding the party's competitive position for future presidential elections after three consecutive DPP victories. Her broader project includes navigating intra-party factional dynamics including the populist wing represented by Han Kuo-yu, modernizing party operations, articulating coherent cross-strait positioning that neither alienates moderates nor concedes to PRC pressure, and recruiting next-generation talent. The early months of her chairmanship have featured both visible attempts to reframe KMT messaging and continuing tensions with the Legislative Yuan-based party leadership. Her ultimate legacy will depend heavily on whether KMT regains executive power under her tenure and how she handles the divided government period.

Cheng's controversy comes from multiple angles. Her unusual political trajectory — from student movement and opposition associations to KMT leadership — has drawn questions about her ideological consistency from both critics and former allies. Her positions on cross-strait relations, while within the KMT mainstream, are viewed by DPP critics as insufficiently defensive of Taiwan's autonomy. Her assertive media style and willingness to engage in confrontational rhetoric have generated both supporters who appreciate her directness and critics who view her as polarizing. As party chair, her relationship with Han Kuo-yu and the Legislative Yuan KMT caucus has been complex, with intra-party power dynamics drawing significant commentary. Supporters credit her with bringing energy and modernization to a struggling party.

Cheng was born in 1969 in Taiwan. Her early career included involvement in student political movements during the late-stage democratization period. She entered electoral politics and served as a Legislative Yuan member, with her party affiliation evolving over time before settling within the KMT. She has worked as a media commentator and party spokesperson, building public visibility through television appearances and press conferences. Her academic background, professional career, and political pathway combine to give her a distinctive profile — neither a traditional KMT establishment figure nor an outsider populist. She has been mentioned as a potential presidential candidate or vice presidential candidate in various election cycles.

Cheng won the 2025 KMT chair election in a contested race against other senior KMT figures. The election came at a moment of intra-party turmoil following the 2024 presidential defeat, with debates over party direction, leadership style, and strategic positioning. Her victory reflected a desire among KMT members for fresh leadership and visible energy, though it also exposed factional divisions. Her election platform emphasized party modernization, cross-strait pragmatism within KMT traditions, and competitive readiness for future elections. The chair election outcome was closely watched as a referendum on KMT direction after years of electoral underperformance.

Cheng operates within a complex KMT political ecology. Han Kuo-yu holds parallel power as Legislative Yuan Speaker, creating a dual-power dynamic between party headquarters and the legislative caucus. Various former presidential candidates, party elders, and faction leaders maintain influence and views about KMT direction. Her relationship with the populist wing associated with Han Kuo-yu has been characterized as cooperative but with underlying tensions. Compared to the technocratic KMT tradition represented by figures like Hou Yu-ih, she represents a different style. Her connection to the historic KMT legacy of Chiang Kai-shek and Chiang Ching-kuo is one of inheritance rather than personal continuity.

Within Taiwan, Cheng is viewed through partisan lenses. KMT supporters and many in the broader pan-blue coalition welcome her energetic leadership style. DPP supporters and pan-green voters generally view her with skepticism, particularly on cross-strait positioning. In mainland China, KMT chairs are typically viewed more favorably than DPP figures, though specific PRC reception of Cheng depends on her statements and actions in office. Internationally, her profile remains lower than presidential figures, primarily known through KMT party developments rather than as an international actor. Among Taiwan diaspora communities, opinion varies by political orientation.

Cheng faces multiple structural challenges. The KMT has lost three consecutive presidential elections and is struggling to expand beyond its core demographic base, particularly among younger voters and urban professionals. Intra-party factional divisions complicate unified messaging. The cross-strait positioning challenge — finding a stance that satisfies pro-engagement KMT traditionalists, more cautious moderates, and Taiwanese-identity-aware voters — has no easy solution. The TPP's emergence under Ko Wen-je has fragmented the non-DPP electorate. Meanwhile, the KMT-TPP legislative majority under Han Kuo-yu's speakership creates both opportunity for visible opposition and risk of governance dysfunction that could backfire electorally.

Bulls argue Cheng has brought needed energy and modernization to a struggling KMT, with potential to rebuild the party's competitive position. They credit her with willingness to articulate distinctive positions, build media presence, and engage younger voters that traditional KMT leadership had lost. They view her unusual political background as a strength — bringing perspectives from outside the traditional KMT establishment. If she succeeds in rebranding the KMT and winning back constituencies the DPP has captured, her reputation builds substantially. Her potential as a future presidential candidate, while uncertain, provides upside optionality.

Bears point to the structural challenges facing the KMT that no party chair can easily overcome, the tensions with the Legislative Yuan caucus and Han Kuo-yu that may undermine party unity, and the persistent demographic and ideological headwinds the party faces in contemporary Taiwan. Critics argue her assertive style may further polarize rather than broaden KMT appeal. They cite the difficulty of cross-strait positioning that satisfies all KMT factions, the TPP's continued presence fragmenting the opposition vote, and the possibility that DPP advantages in younger voter recruitment will continue compounding. Some critics question whether her political pathway shows ideological consistency.

Cheng Li-wun trades with significant volatility as a relatively new figure in the top tier of Taiwan politics. Her price reflects partisan polarization typical of contemporary Taiwan politics, plus uncertainty about her capacity to deliver KMT revival. Compared to established figures like Tsai Ing-wen or Lai Ching-te, her price is more sensitive to active news. The KMT-TPP legislative majority's policy battles and the divided government dynamics directly affect her standing. Her order book typically shows wide spreads reflecting the uncertainty about her future political trajectory.

Cheng's price moves on KMT internal developments (factional disputes, candidate selections, party reform initiatives), Legislative Yuan battles where her leadership intersects with Han Kuo-yu's speakership, local election outcomes that reflect KMT electoral health, cross-strait events that test her positioning, her own public statements and major speeches, and any signs of presidential ambitions or candidate selection for future elections. DPP electoral developments under Lai Ching-te and TPP developments under Ko Wen-je's post-legal situation also indirectly affect her price.

Compared to Han Kuo-yu, Cheng represents party headquarters versus legislative caucus power center within the KMT, with different stylistic and strategic emphases. Compared to Tsai Ing-wen, Cheng represents nearly opposite ideological positioning within Taiwan's partisan spectrum. Compared to Lai Ching-te, she is the principal opposition leader though without comparable executive position. Compared to historic KMT chairs and presidents like Chiang Kai-shek and Chiang Ching-kuo, she represents a vastly different KMT operating in a vastly different Taiwan. Compared to Ko Wen-je, the third-party alternative whose legal situation has constrained the TPP, Cheng represents the conventional opposition path the KMT continues to occupy.

Cheng's long-term reputation depends substantially on whether she succeeds in revitalizing the KMT and on her own future political trajectory. If KMT regains executive power partly under her leadership, her reputation builds substantially. If KMT continues to underperform under her chairmanship, she could be remembered as one of several party leaders unable to overcome structural challenges. Her potential as a future presidential candidate represents significant optionality in either direction. Her trajectory is among the more uncertain in contemporary Taiwan politics.

Cheng Li-wun is a higher-volatility position with substantial uncertainty given her relatively new top-tier role. The bull case rests on KMT revival under her leadership, potential future presidential candidacy, and successful navigation of the divided government period. The bear case rests on continued KMT structural challenges, intra-party tensions, and the difficulty of rebuilding the party's electoral coalition. Position sizing should reflect the high uncertainty around her trajectory. Pair trades against Han Kuo-yu can express views on intra-KMT power dynamics, against Lai Ching-te on direct partisan competition, and against Ko Wen-je on whether KMT or TPP becomes the principal opposition force.