毛沢東

Mao Zedong (1893–1976) was the founding leader of the People's Republic of China and chairman of the Chinese Communist Party from 1943 until his death. Born to a peasant family in Hunan, he became a Marxist intellectual, military strategist, and revolutionary who led the CCP to victory in the Chinese Civil War, founding the PRC on October 1, 1949. Over the next 27 years, he attempted to transform Chinese society through mass campaigns including the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution. He is among the most consequential political leaders of the 20th century — and one of the most contested. His face still appears on every banknote of the renminbi and above Tiananmen Gate in Beijing, while scholarly estimates of deaths attributable to his policies range from tens of millions upward.

Mao's legacy has three pillars: he ended a century of foreign humiliation and warlordism by unifying mainland China under a single government, he established the institutional foundation of the modern Chinese state, and he embedded a particular Marxist-Leninist political vocabulary that the CCP continues to draw on. Land reform, mass literacy gains, basic public health expansion, and the elimination of certain pre-revolutionary social structures are credited to his early rule. Against these, the Great Leap Forward (1958–1962) caused a famine that killed tens of millions, and the Cultural Revolution (1966–1976) caused massive social trauma and elite purges. Deng Xiaoping's official 1981 assessment described Mao's career as "70% achievement, 30% mistakes" — a formula the Party still uses.

Mao is controversial because the human cost of his rule was extraordinary by any historical measure, yet his role as founder of modern China is undeniable. The Great Leap Forward's collectivization and unrealistic grain quotas produced what is widely considered the deadliest famine in human history. The Cultural Revolution targeted intellectuals, traditional culture, and Party officials including Deng Xiaoping, leaving lasting wounds across Chinese society. Outside China, critics view him alongside Stalin as a totalitarian leader responsible for mass suffering. Inside China, official memory emphasizes his unifying and anti-imperialist role while acknowledging "errors in his later years." Trading Mao Zedong on JudgeMarket forces traders to weigh foundational legacy against catastrophic policy failures.

Mao was born in Shaoshan, Hunan, on December 26, 1893, the son of a relatively prosperous peasant. He studied in Changsha during the late Qing collapse and the 1911 Revolution, then worked as an assistant librarian at Peking University where he encountered Marxism. He was among the founding members of the CCP in 1921. After the Nationalist purge of communists in 1927, he led peasant uprisings and developed the strategy of building rural base areas. The Long March (1934–1935), in which Communist forces retreated thousands of miles to escape Nationalist encirclement, established his leadership of the Party. He then directed the CCP from Yan'an through the war against Japan and the civil war against Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalist government.

The Great Leap Forward (1958–1962) was Mao's attempt to rapidly transform China from an agrarian society into an industrial socialist state through mass mobilization. Peasants were organized into vast people's communes, private plots were abolished, and backyard furnaces were ordered to produce steel — most of which proved unusable. Provincial cadres reported inflated grain harvests to please central authorities, which then requisitioned grain based on the false figures. The result was the deadliest famine in human history, with academic estimates of excess deaths ranging from roughly 15 million to over 45 million. The catastrophe forced Mao to step back from day-to-day governance, with figures like Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping leading the recovery — a humiliation that motivated his return to power through the Cultural Revolution.

The Cultural Revolution (1966–1976) was a mass political movement Mao launched to reassert his authority, purge rivals, and prevent what he saw as a capitalist restoration within the CCP. Mobilizing students into Red Guard units, he attacked the "Four Olds" — old customs, culture, habits, and ideas — and targeted intellectuals, Party officials, and traditional cultural figures. Deng Xiaoping was purged twice and his son was paralyzed after being thrown from a building. Schools and universities closed for years, factional violence killed hundreds of thousands to over a million, and the trauma reshaped a generation. The official CCP verdict, issued under Deng in 1981, condemned the Cultural Revolution as "responsible for the most severe setback and the heaviest losses suffered by the Party, the state and the people since the founding of the People's Republic."

In mainland China, Mao remains the legitimating founder of the PRC, with his portrait at Tiananmen and his body preserved in the mausoleum on the square. Public criticism of him remains politically constrained, while a portion of the population — including some "new left" intellectuals — actively venerates him. In Taiwan, where the Republic of China government under Chiang Kai-shek retreated in 1949, Mao is generally remembered as a totalitarian adversary, though the framing has softened across generations. In Hong Kong, views range across the political spectrum. In the West, mainstream scholarship is highly critical of his domestic policies while acknowledging his geopolitical impact, though a smaller revisionist current emphasizes his anti-colonial significance. On JudgeMarket, this geographic divergence creates persistent disagreement at the order book level.

Mao's economic record is mostly viewed as poor — China's per capita GDP at his death was roughly comparable to its level decades earlier and far below other East Asian economies. However, he left several institutional inheritances that shaped what came next: a centralized state apparatus capable of large-scale mobilization, a literate workforce expanded through mass education campaigns, a basic public health infrastructure including the "barefoot doctors" program, and a unified national identity. Land reform redistributed property from landlords to peasants. The infrastructure foundation, while limited, included rail and water management projects that subsequent leaders built upon. Deng Xiaoping's reform and opening succeeded in part because Mao had created the political unity within which such reforms could be implemented from a single center.

Bulls argue Mao's status as founder of modern China is irreversible, and that his role in ending the "century of humiliation," defeating Japanese occupation forces alongside the Nationalists, and unifying the mainland will dominate long-run historical memory. They note that his image remains central to PRC legitimacy, that no current Chinese leader can disavow him without delegitimizing the system, and that as long as the PRC endures, Mao endures with it. They point to the durable infrastructure of unified governance and the cultural impact of "Mao Zedong Thought." In China itself, his reputation has if anything strengthened in some segments of the population in recent decades as a symbol of self-reliance and anti-Western posture.

Bears emphasize the sheer scale of human suffering caused by the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution. They argue that as Chinese society becomes more historically literate, the gap between official narrative and documented catastrophe will erode his standing. They note that even the official CCP verdict acknowledges major errors, and that within the Party, Deng Xiaoping's reforms are remembered as the actual source of modern prosperity. Bears also point to the long shadow on Chinese intellectual life, the destruction of cultural heritage, and the persecution of millions of innocent people. Outside China, his reputation is far weaker than figures like Mahatma Gandhi or Nelson Mandela within the 20th-century revolutionary leader pantheon.

Mao Zedong is one of the most polarized assets on JudgeMarket. His price reflects irreconcilable views: founder of modern China and inspiration for global revolutionary movements versus architect of the deadliest famine in history and the Cultural Revolution. A price near the middle does not represent ambivalence — it represents an active disagreement between traders who bid him toward 100 and others who hit toward 0. This is the canonical example of "polarized 50" rather than "lukewarm 50." Reading his order book reveals deep, persistent disagreement that may never fully resolve, as long as the PRC retains him as founding symbol while critical historiography continues to develop.

Mao's price moves on narrative catalysts more than fresh news, given his death in 1976. Major events include CCP anniversaries (especially the National Day on October 1 and Party founding on July 1), publication of new historical scholarship, shifts in official PRC framing of his legacy, political events in China that invoke Maoist rhetoric or symbolism, and broader China-West tension that polarizes global opinion. Movies, documentaries, or major museum exhibits can also create price action. Statements by current Chinese leaders that elevate or downplay his role tend to ripple through related assets including Deng Xiaoping and Xi Jinping.

Mao occupies a unique position among 20th-century revolutionaries. Unlike Nelson Mandela, whose post-revolution leadership emphasized reconciliation, or Mahatma Gandhi, who pursued nonviolence, Mao prioritized continuing class struggle even after taking power. He is more comparable to figures like Stalin in terms of scale of state-imposed transformation. Within Chinese history, he stands alongside founding-dynasty emperors as a leader who unified the country after a period of fragmentation. On JudgeMarket, his closest comparables among Chinese leaders are Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao, and Xi Jinping, but his magnitude and time horizon are categorically different.

Mao's long-run reputation will likely remain contested for as long as the PRC exists and probably longer. Within China, his role as founder gives him a durable floor. The future trajectory depends on whether independent historical scholarship gains broader domestic circulation, whether the political system that defends his image continues, and how broader global narratives about revolutionary 20th-century leaders evolve. Reputation revisions can run in both directions — periods of national self-confidence in China tend to lift him, while periods of reform sentiment tend to emphasize his errors. He is unlikely ever to be a consensus hero or villain.

Mao Zedong is a foundational position for anyone trading Chinese political history. The bull case rests on the durability of PRC institutional memory, the strength of revolutionary nostalgia, and his unmatched status as state founder. The bear case rests on the sheer documented cost of his rule and the long-term direction of historical scholarship. Unlike contemporary figures whose reputations are still being shaped by ongoing events, Mao's life is fixed — the variable is interpretation, not new actions. Position sizing should reflect the long-cycle nature of reputation shifts for historical figures, and pair trades against Deng Xiaoping or Xi Jinping can express specific views on which strand of Chinese leadership tradition will be most valued by future generations.