Tim Walz

Tim Walz carries the elevated baseline of a recent national ticket, and the market prices that into a wider, more liquid band than a typical state executive. His number absorbed a step-change in 2024 when the VP nomination converted a Midwestern governor into a recognizable national figure; the consensus now reflects a blend of that residual profile and his ongoing record running Minnesota. The verdict is partisan-split — supporters price an authentic, plain-spoken "coach" brand, while critics discount the losing ticket and contested policy stretches. Beta runs higher than most governors because his standing is tethered to the national conversation as much as to St. Paul. Volatility concentrates on relevance: whether he remains a 2028-cycle voice or fades back toward a regional valuation. A re-entry into national contention would firm the band; prolonged absence from the spotlight is the main downside drift, ceding ground to risers like Andy Beshear.