Democratic congressional candidates lead Republicans 53% to 41% among registered voters in the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, as President 
Donald Trump tries to make the midterm elections a referendum on his presidency. Independents, who often decide competitive races, favor Democrats by 25 points, PBS NewsHour reported. About 7 in 10 voters say the president is a factor in their vote for Congress, while 30% say he is not.
What role does the president play? Trump spoke of Republicans riding his electoral coattails at the party's midterm convention in Dallas this month, and 71% of self-identified MAGA supporters say their congressional vote is mostly a vote for him. Among all registered voters, however, 45% say their vote will mostly express opposition to Trump, a share that rises to 54% among independents. Just 24% of voters and 12% of independents say they are voting to show support for the president. "That's devastating," said Democratic strategist Joel Payne, who added that when independents are strongly motivated to vote against one side, "that's significant."
Where does his approval stand? Trump's job approval, frozen for most of the year, sits at 39%, with 59% disapproving. More than half of voters, 53%, strongly disapprove of his performance, the highest share Marist has recorded across either of his terms. "It's a nationalized election whether they like it or not," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. Republican strategist Melik Abdul said the numbers "are concerning to Republicans behind the scenes."
Which side is more energized? Nearly 9 in 10 voters say they care a great deal or quite a bit about which party controls Congress, but 76% of Democrats care a great deal who wins, against 67% of Republicans. Three-quarters of MAGA supporters match that fervor, while the rest of the Republican coalition lags behind. Independents are the least engaged, with 30% following the race very closely. "When he's not on the ballot, it doesn't automatically transfer," Miringoff said.
How does this compare with 2018? A Marist poll in September 2018, during Trump's first term, showed Democrats ahead 50% to 38%, a lead that narrowed to 6 points in the final pre-election survey, PBS NewsHour reported. Republicans lost 40 House seats in those midterms, though redistricting has since narrowed the field of competitive House races. "I don't think 40 seats is remotely in play," Miringoff said, adding that a gain of a dozen seats would be a good outcome for Democrats.
Figures referenced: Donald Trump. — JudgeMarket.
